I have been predicting it for years. As have many others, but the attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities hasn't happened. Why? There is a debate over the attack, even in Israel. Even there, the serious military types worry that a strike, (actually weeks and weeks of strikes - see Kosovo) might be enough to trigger an Arab nations onslaught. And they worry about the hundreds of SRBM's that Iran could credibly place on Israeli targets. Never mind the certain disruption in oil supplies which would trigger a global economic catastrophe, which would be exponentially worse than the current one. And did I mention that Iran has dozens, if not hundreds, of hypersonic Russian and Chinese Sunburn, Mosquit and Silkworm ship killer missiles that could credibly destroy many of the American ships now operating in the Persian gulf?
It also now seems that even though Cheney supported an attack, Bush did not. That matters. Without US acquiescence at least, and support at best, any Israeli attack would fail. So America is critical. And to date, no green light has been given.
This does not mean that the fanatics, religious and otherwise, who occupy the Israeli government, won't make the calculation that if they attack, the United States MUST come in on their side to avoid, wait for it, ANOTHER HOLOCAUST.
Meh, I tend to depend on the good old MAD doctrine which worked so well with those "crazy", "ëvil" Russkies. All this talk about a "suicidal" leadership is just propaganda. As Sting said, even the Russians love their children too.
Is Ajad nuts enough to do it anyway? I don't think so, aside from the fact that he lacks the political power to order a strike, AND IS YEARS AWAY FROM HAVING A WEAPON! The real question is, Does Khameni want one? And the answer is that is that the Supreme Leader has declared atomic weapons "unislamic" .
Khamenhi knows that it would be the literal end of Iran, and even if the former mayor of Tehran wanted to nuke Israel, the military would never comply. The Ayatollahs would have to be mad to support such an adventure, and they are not, despite all the press to the contrary. They would be annihilated as Hilary said. In fact if Iran were to nuke Israel, even I would support glassing the entire country as a lesson to the next lot of maniacs.
The real danger will come from those "serious" journalists and politicians who will try to convince us that a "limited" strike is possible, just like the good old days at Osirak. Only those days are gone.
I think the real "fear" of an Iranian bomb is that the West and America in particular, will have to treat them as equals, and not "little people" who we can lord over and order around as we do with so many nuclear armless countries around the world.
So it's on again, off again. The name of the game is Maniacs/fundamentalists vs the Sane. Unfortunately for us all, there are many pushing for an attack, whatever the cost, it is up to we the people, to push back even harder, with facts and appeals to morality and common sense, thin as the latter are on the ground. I see no other way forward.
